Market overview
The crypto market closed another bruising week as Bitcoin’s seven-month bear market deepened, the Ethereum Foundation faced one of its loudest public crises, and rising bond yields reignited a bigger debate about where capital is heading next.
Bitcoin entered the week trading near $80,000 after losing the $82,000 zone the previous Thursday. The slide accelerated into Friday and through the weekend, with BTC falling to $74,190 on Saturday, its lowest level in more than a month. By Sunday, prices had stabilized just above $77,000 as traders began pricing in a potential US-Iran peace deal.
Ether took a heavier beating in relative terms. ETH dropped roughly 8% across the month and traded around $2,100 by week’s close. ETH has fallen more than 57% from its October 2025 peak near $4,955, with the sell-off also eroding Ethereum’s market share. ETH’s dominance has dropped to about 10%, down from roughly 15% in August 2025.
Total crypto market capitalization sat near $2.5 trillion as Bitcoin dominance held above 58%. Sentiment cratered alongside price. The crypto fear and greed index moved into “Fear” at 38 as institutional flows turned defensive. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $1.74 billion in cumulative outflows, while the Coinbase Premium turned deeply negative, signaling that large US buyers had stepped back.
Three forces drove the tape this week: a hawkish reset on Fed policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, a flight from sovereign bonds as 30-year US Treasury yields broke past 5.14%, and renewed war risk in the Middle East that kept oil prices elevated until weekend peace headlines emerged.
Geopolitical tensions
The Iran war remained the dominant macro driver of the week. The conflict continued to push energy prices higher through Friday, feeding into a fresh inflation scare that pressured every risk asset including crypto.
By Sunday, the tone shifted. A peace deal between the US and Iran seemed closer than ever, and markets began pricing in the end of the conflict. US stock futures surged at the weekly open, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new all-time highs. Japan’s stock market gained 3.5%. WTI crude turned lower, slipping toward $90 per barrel after weeks of pressure.
In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump pledged to make a deal that was “good and proper.” “Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!” he wrote.
Bitcoin’s response was notably restrained. Bitcoin’s response was more muted, continuing a trend from last week where stock market records failed to ignite upward momentum for crypto. Still, traders saw the potential resolution as the cleanest near-term catalyst for a recovery push toward $80,000.
The geopolitical layer is now bleeding directly into US monetary policy. War-driven oil prices have lifted headline inflation expectations, which in turn has shifted the Fed’s tone hawkish at a moment when crypto bulls were hoping for the opposite.
Key news spotlight
Vitalik buterin outlines a “smaller ship” for the ethereum foundation
The single biggest story of the week came from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who published a roughly 1,500-word post on X addressing a wave of resignations and external criticism around the Ethereum Foundation. Buterin said the EF is choosing “longevity over breadth,” selling less ETH and focusing exclusively on Ethereum’s “CROPS” properties of censorship/capture resistance, open source, privacy, and security. He stressed the post reflected only his personal view, not a board position, and said his own power within the organization “will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want.”
The framing was a direct response to mounting departures. At least eight senior EF contributors have left or announced plans to leave in 2026, including five in May, alongside earlier exits from senior leadership.
Buterin defended the Foundation’s restraint on treasury management with a striking comparison. “The EF has only about 0.16% of all ETH,” he said, noting that it is common for other foundations to hold 10-50% of their native tokens.
He also pushed back on the idea that Ethereum should chase raw throughput. “I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension.” Among the goals he named: provably bug-free Ethereum through AI-assisted formal verification, robust consensus, and reducing intermediary reliance for transaction submission.
The post landed in a sensitive moment for ETH. The cryptocurrency journalist Laura Shin captured the broader market frustration: “I think Ethereum’s original sin was not considering tokenomics with every move it made from Dencun on,” she said, referring to the March 2024 upgrade that significantly reduced network fees for layer-2 transactions and led to a subsequent collapse in Ethereum’s base layer revenue.
Tom Lee’s Bitmine Sits on $7.35 Billion in Paper Losses
Tom Lee’s BitMine faces about $7.3 billion in paper losses on its Ethereum treasury as ETH continues to bleed. The firm’s average purchase price sits at $3,513, well above current prices near $2,100.
Despite the drawdown, Bitmine kept buying. The Tom Lee-led firm scooped an extra $125.9 million worth of ETH (60K tokens) via Kraken and BitGo this week, taking its monthly accumulation past 150,000 ETH. The firm currently holds 5.3 million ETH. If the recent weekly buying pace of 60K-100K ETH continues, Bitmine may hit its 6 million ETH goal in the next two to three months.
The bearish technical scenario is uncomfortable. A confirmed breakdown below that support could trigger a measured move toward the $1,600 area, down about 25% from current prices, by July or August. If that plays out, BitMine’s unrealized losses would swell to nearly $10.1 billion.
Cardano’s Internal Rift Over IO Research Funding
Cardano is going through its loudest governance test since launching on-chain voting. The Cardano community is facing one of its greatest tests since it transitioned into a fully decentralized, on-chain governance model. The debate surrounds an Input Output (IO) Research funding proposal supported by Charles Hoskinson, which seeks to allocate millions of dollars into research.
The funding ask is significant but smaller than last year’s. Hoskinson accuses several Japanese Delegate Representatives (dReps) of voting against the critical funding proposal, which seeks $52 million in funding, a drop from last year’s $98 million. Hoskinson warned that scientists may simply leave if the proposal fails, and some of its scientists will move to competing chains such as Solana, Ripple, and Ethereum.
The pushback from holders is rooted in ADA’s underperformance. Once a top ten coin, valued at over $100 billion, it has now dropped to 13th and lost over 91% of its value over the last 5 years.
Bitcoin ETFs Snap a Five-Day Inflow Streak
Earlier in the week, the ETF picture turned ugly fast. Bitcoin funds logged $277.5 million in outflows on Thursday, marking the first daily outflows in May, snapping a five-day inflow streak totaling nearly $1.7 billion. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the outflows at $129 million, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) followed with $98 million in outflows.
Corporate accumulation of Ethereum is now a structural story. According to AMBCrypto, companies with strategic Ethereum reserves collectively hold 7.33 million ETH. That means roughly 6% of Ethereum’s total supply is now sitting on corporate balance sheets.
Bond Yields, Bitcoin and the “Supercycle” Thesis
The week’s most ambitious macro call came from BitMEX. Rising government bond yields signal a coming “structural” shift that will create a Bitcoin “supercycle”, according to senior research analyst Shang Wu. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury broke past 5.14% on Tuesday, while the Bank of Japan’s 10-year government bond yield touched 2.8%.
The argument is simple. “Central banks are backed into a corner. They must choose between a sovereign debt collapse and debasing their currencies,” Wu said. With the US national debt at $39 trillion, raising rates further would consume the entire federal tax base in interest expense.
Top gainers
| Token | 7d % | Reason | Detail |
| NEAR Protocol (NEAR) | 0.608 | Hayes endorsement + AI rotation + short squeeze | Arthur Hayes named NEAR in his “holy trinity” of altcoins, triggering a 50% surge and $9.85M in short liquidations, plus Bitwise NEAR ETP inflows. Amplified by post-NVIDIA AI rotation and a max inflation cut from 5% to 2.5%. |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 0.3913 | Macro relief + stacked DeFi catalysts | Trump’s May 23 Iran peace announcement unwound the risk-off move that had BTC below $75K. Morpho also integrated with Stripe-backed Tempo and saw Wintermute’s Armitage vaults go live, on top of the existing Apollo Global commitment to buy ~9% of supply. |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | 0.3945 | ETF flows + whale buying + Hayes $150 target | May 20–22: Grayscale wallets bought ~$25M HYPE, Galaxy ~$8.8M, a16z-tied addresses ~$10M. HYPE ETFs pulled $36M in 5 days, pushing HYPE to a new all-time high. |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 0.3522 | Robinhood listing + AI narrative + tiny float | May 20 Robinhood spot listing drove a 78.1% volume spike to ~$90M, within a broader AI token surge. ~42.8% of total supply already burned, leaving only ~46M VVV circulating, so demand moves price fast. |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | 0.2784 | Capitulation bounce + AI/identity narrative | Reversal off the May 18 all-time low near $0.23, supported by Nasdaq-listed Eightco’s disclosure of holding 8.39% of WLD’s circulating supply, the largest public institutional position. |
Top losers
| Token | 7d % | Reason | Detail |
| Chiliz (CHZ) | -22.38% | Outside the rotation + pre-World Cup unwind | No CHZ-specific bad news — just risk-off weakness hitting a high-beta altcoin with no AI/DeFi narrative. Traders are also front-running CHZ’s historical “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern ahead of the June 11 World Cup. |
| Toncoin (TON) | -9.01% | Post-Telegram-news unwind + BTC pullback | TON had rallied near $2.90 on Durov’s May 4 announcement that Telegram would become TON’s largest validator, then faded to ~$2.00 as Bitcoin pulled back toward $76K, with selling volume up ~34%. |
| MemeCore (M) | -8.30% | Meme sector cold + leverage unwind | An April fakeout breakout above $3 trapped buyers; funding rates near 70% set up a long squeeze. Meme L1s are the natural funding source when capital rotates into AI plays. |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | -7.69% | Hot CPI + token unlock + L2 competition | A 3.8% YoY US CPI print killed near-term rate-cut hopes, while traders positioned around an upcoming ARB unlock. Net bridge outflows also suggest capital is rotating toward Base, Optimism, zkSync, and Starknet. |
| Flare (FLR) | -5.39% | No fresh catalyst + drifted with mid-caps | The FIP.16 inflation-cut and buyback-burn proposal was already priced in from April, leaving FLR with nothing to bid against the week’s AI/DeFi rotation. |
Technical analysis and price outlook
Bitcoin
Bitcoin lost its critical support zone this week. The price of Bitcoin may be headed to the $60,000 level after breaking past a “crucial” support zone between $75,000 and $76,000, according to crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe.
Other analysts see the dip as a liquidity sweep rather than a structural breakdown. Trader and analyst Lennaert Snyder referred to Bitcoin’s trip below $75,000 as a “very nice liquidity sweep.” “I’m intraday bullish on Bitcoin, and I’m still eyeing that 79/80 level to retest. Would be great if the 74.2K low could get us there, I’ll watch 79/80K closely for quality shorts after my trigger.”
Trader CW pointed to a short squeeze setup just above current prices. “$BTC has risen to just before the high-leverage short position zone. The upcoming rise will be a liquidation process for short positions.” “There is a significant amount of short position pressure until 80.5k.”
On-chain data points to limits on the downside. 71% of the circulating supply is held by long-term holders, making a break below $60,000 unlikely. Still, Bitcoin continues to trade well below its 365-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, two dynamic support levels, and closed below the 50-day EMA on Friday.
The structural warning is real. “Historically, periods with ETF outflows, negative Coinbase Premium, weak spot demand, and crowded longs have often preceded large liquidation events,” CryptoQuant flagged. “For now, Bitcoin looks less like a healthy bull market and more like a fragile rebound driven by leverage rather than real demand.”
Key levels for the week ahead:
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Resistance: $79,000 to $80,500 (short liquidation zone)
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Support: $74,200 (weekend low), then $72,000
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Bullish reclaim: $80,000 and the daily bull market support band
Ethereum
ETH is in the weakest technical position of the majors. As of Sunday, ETH was hovering near the lower trend line of its prevailing rising wedge, a bearish reversal pattern that often signals fading buyer momentum.
The downside target is sobering. A confirmed breakdown below that support could trigger a measured move toward the $1,600 area, down about 25% from current prices, by July or August. The bullish reversal scenario would lift ETH toward $2,530.
Sentiment has cracked. ETH sentiment deteriorated sharply in May, with the bullish-to-bearish comment ratio falling from above 2:1 in late April to nearly 1:1, according to on-chain data platform Santiment.
Key levels for ETH:
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Resistance: $2,200, then $2,530
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Support: $2,000, then $1,600 (wedge target)
Bitcoin dominance and macro setup
Bitcoin dominance holding above 58% reflects defensive positioning. Until ETH stabilizes and altcoin breadth improves, capital is unlikely to rotate aggressively. The macro setup remains the bigger swing factor. CME data shows traders now expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for most of 2026, with futures pricing pointing to a possible 25 basis point hike in December.
The week ahead
The final week of May carries one of the heaviest macro calendars of the quarter, with three potential catalysts converging:
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PCE inflation print (Thursday, May 28): The U.S. core PCE price index for April drops alongside U.S. Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2026. This is the first PCE reading under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the first to fully reflect Iran war-driven inflation pressures. A hotter than expected print would lock in the hawkish narrative; a softer print would reopen the door to crypto recovery.
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US-Iran peace deal headlines: A confirmed deal would relieve oil prices, ease inflation expectations, and potentially trigger the short squeeze toward $80,000 that several traders are positioning for. A deal that collapses or stalls would do the opposite.
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Bitcoin spot ETF flows: After $1.74 billion in cumulative outflows, the market needs to see institutional buying reappear. A flip back to inflows would mark the bottom of this leg; another week of outflows would deepen the demand problem.
Traders should also watch:
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US Memorial Day (Monday, May 25) — US markets closed, lower liquidity
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Consumer Confidence (Tuesday, May 26)
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Fed Beige Book (Wednesday, May 27)
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Initial Jobless Claims and Q1 GDP second estimate (Thursday, May 28)
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Personal Income and Spending alongside PCE (Friday’s processing)
For YEX traders, the playbook is straightforward. With leveraged futures activity driving the recent rebound rather than spot demand, position sizing matters more than direction. The $74,200 to $80,500 range on BTC and the $2,000 to $2,200 range on ETH define the high-probability rotation zones until macro clarity arrives.
Crypto calendar highlights
Tokenomics
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LayerZero (ZRO): ~2.36% supply unlock expected mid-week
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Starknet (STRK): ~2.26% circulating supply unlock
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PumpFun (PUMP): Significant unlock event with reported circulating supply impact in the 20%+ range
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Sahara AI (SAHARA): ~9.58% circulating supply unlock
Macro events
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May 25 (Monday): US Memorial Day — US equity and bond markets closed
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May 26 (Tuesday): US Consumer Confidence (April)
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May 27 (Wednesday): US Fed Beige Book
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May 28 (Thursday): US Q1 GDP (second estimate); Initial Jobless Claims; Durable Goods
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May 29 (Friday): US Personal Income and Outlays; Core PCE Price Index (April)
Industry watch
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Continued Ethereum Foundation board expansion announcements expected
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Bitcoin ETF flow data (daily, via SoSoValue and Farside)
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Iran peace negotiation headlines (ongoing)
Market summary
|
Asset
|
Price (May 25)
|
7D change
|
Key level to watch
|
|
BTC
|
~$77,300
|
-3.5%
|
$74,200 support / $80,500 resistance
|
|
ETH
|
~$2,100
|
-2.8%
|
$2,000 support / $2,530 resistance
|
|
BNB
|
~$658
|
-1.5%
|
$650 support
|
|
SOL
|
~$85
|
-4.0%
|
$84 support
|
|
XRP
|
~$1.35
|
-2.0%
|
$1.30 support
|
|
ADA
|
~$0.243
|
-3.8%
|
Governance overhang in focus
|
|
ZEC
|
~$667
|
+5.0%
|
Privacy sector outperformer
|
|
HYPE
|
~$63
|
+9.0%
|
Strongest large-cap performer
|